Parlay Betting Sites & Calculator

Parlay — April 2026 Update

1. **FanDuel** supports same-game parlays with a minimum of **2 legs** and a maximum of **10 legs**, available on iOS and Android apps with payouts within 24 hours. 2. **Caesars Sportsbook** offers same-game parlays, iOS and Android apps, payouts within 24 hours, and a promo with **COVERSBONUSDYW** code for **Double Your Winnings (10x)**. 3. **FanDuel** provides a parlay promo: **Bet $5, Win $250** in bonus bets. 4. In Canada, **Bill C-218** legalized single-event betting in August 2021, causing parlay betting and same-game parlays (SGPs) to explode in popularity. 5. Canadian sportsbooks rank **6 best for parlay betting** in 2026 by tools, maximum legs, and bonus offers, with parlays as the most popular bet type. 6. A **3-leg parlay** at +600 odds turns a **C$20 bet into C$140** at Canadian sportsbooks. 7. A **5-leg SGP** on an NHL game can pay **+2500 or more** in Canada. 8. **FanDuel** offers a 10% parlay boost on a $50 three-leg parlay at 6.00 decimal odds, with cash-out options if two legs win.

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What Is a Parlay Bet?

A parlay is a single wager that links two or more individual bets together into one ticket. Every selection — called a “leg” — must win for the parlay to pay out. If even one leg loses, the entire parlay is graded as a loss. In exchange for accepting that elevated risk, the sportsbook offers a significantly higher payout than you would receive by betting each selection individually.

The concept is straightforward: you are trading a lower probability of winning for a higher potential return. A two-team NFL parlay at standard -110 odds on each side pays roughly +264 (about 2.64-to-1), whereas betting those two games separately would yield two individual payouts at -110. The parlay multiplies your potential profit, but it also multiplies the house edge — a critical distinction that every bettor needs to understand before adding legs to a ticket.

Parlays have become the single most popular bet type in American sports betting. According to the American Gaming Association, parlay wagers account for over 30% of total handle at many US sportsbooks, and operators like DraftKings and FanDuel have leaned heavily into parlay-centric promotions because of their higher built-in margins. Understanding exactly how parlays work — the math, the strategy, and the pitfalls — is essential for any bettor who wants to make informed decisions rather than simply hoping for a big payday.

How Parlay Payouts Are Calculated

Parlay payouts are determined by multiplying the decimal odds of each individual leg together. Every American odds line can be converted to decimal odds using a simple formula, and the product of those decimal odds determines your total return multiplier.

To convert American odds to decimal odds: for positive odds, divide by 100 and add 1 (so +150 becomes 2.50). For negative odds, divide 100 by the absolute value and add 1 (so -110 becomes 1.909). Once you have each leg in decimal form, multiply them together, then multiply by your stake to find the total payout including your original wager.

Two-Leg Parlay Example

Suppose you want to parlay the Kansas City Chiefs -3.5 (-110) with the Over 47.5 in the Buffalo Bills game (-110). Converting both to decimal: -110 equals 1.909. Multiply 1.909 by 1.909, and you get 3.644. A $100 wager would return $364.40 total — your $100 stake plus $264.40 in profit. That is equivalent to American odds of approximately +264.

Three-Leg Parlay Example

Now add a third leg: the Philadelphia Eagles moneyline at -150 (decimal 1.667). The calculation becomes 1.909 x 1.909 x 1.667 = 6.075. Your $100 bet would return $607.50 — a profit of $507.50 at approximately +508 odds. Notice that adding just one more leg nearly doubled the potential payout, which illustrates both the appeal and the mathematical trap of parlays.

Four-Leg and Beyond

A four-leg parlay with all standard -110 legs calculates as 1.909 raised to the fourth power, which equals approximately 13.30. That means a $100 wager returns $1,330. At five legs, the payout jumps to roughly $2,541. At six legs, it reaches approximately $4,854. The exponential growth in potential payout is what draws recreational bettors to large parlays — but the probability of winning drops just as steeply.

Parlay Payout Reference Table

Number of Legs (all at -110)	True Odds	Approximate Payout on $100	Implied Win Probability
2	+264	$364	27.5%
3	+508	$608	16.4%
4	+1,230	$1,330	7.5%
5	+2,441	$2,541	3.9%
6	+4,754	$4,854	2.1%
7	+9,077	$9,177	1.1%
8	+17,337	$17,437	0.57%
10	+63,246	$63,346	0.16%

The table above assumes all legs are at standard -110 juice. When you mix in favorites with higher implied probabilities or underdogs with lower probabilities, the math shifts accordingly. The key takeaway is that your probability of winning a parlay decreases geometrically with each added leg while the payout increases — but the house edge also compounds with each additional selection.

The House Edge on Parlays

This is where most parlay bettors lose without realizing it. On a single -110 bet, the sportsbook holds a theoretical edge of approximately 4.55% (the vig or juice). On a two-leg parlay of -110 bets, the house edge compounds to roughly 9%. By the time you reach a five-leg parlay, the house edge has ballooned to approximately 20-25%, depending on how the book calculates payouts.

Professional sports bettor and former ESPN analyst Stanford Wong explained this phenomenon in his foundational work “Sharp Sports Betting”: “The parlay bettor is paying vig on every leg, and those individual vigs multiply together. A ten-leg parlay doesn’t give you ten times the edge against you — it gives you something far worse.” This compounding vig is the primary reason that serious bettors approach parlays with caution and why sportsbooks aggressively promote them.

Some books offer “true odds” parlays where the payout is calculated by multiplying the actual decimal odds of each leg together, rather than using a fixed parlay payout card. DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and most major US sportsbooks now use the true-odds method, which is marginally better for bettors than old-school parlay cards that use preset payout tables. However, even true-odds parlays carry compounding vig because each individual line already includes the house’s margin.

Correlated Parlays vs. Uncorrelated Parlays

Understanding correlation is the single most important strategic concept in parlay betting. Two outcomes are correlated when one result makes the other more likely to occur. Two outcomes are uncorrelated when the result of one has no meaningful impact on the probability of the other.

Correlated Parlay Examples

The most classic correlated parlay is combining a team’s moneyline with the game total going over. If the Kansas City Chiefs win, there is a higher-than-average chance that the total points scored in the game exceeded the number, because winning teams tend to score more points. Similarly, parlaying a team’s moneyline with a star player on that team to score a certain number of points is correlated — if the team wins, the star player likely performed well.

Other examples of positive correlation include: a team winning and covering the spread (if they win by enough, both hit); a running back hitting his rushing yards prop and his team winning (ground game success correlates with team success); and a pitcher recording a certain number of strikeouts and his team winning (dominant pitching leads to wins).

Uncorrelated Parlay Examples

Combining the result of a Monday Night Football game with a Tuesday NBA game is uncorrelated — one outcome has zero bearing on the other. Similarly, betting the Over in a Celtics game and the Under in a completely unrelated Padres game involves no correlation. Most multi-sport parlays are uncorrelated by nature.

Why Correlation Matters

Sportsbooks price each leg of a parlay independently, as if the events were uncorrelated. When you identify a positively correlated parlay, you are essentially getting a discount — the true probability of both outcomes hitting simultaneously is higher than the independent probabilities suggest. This is one of the few scenarios where a parlay can actually offer positive expected value.

It is worth noting that sportsbooks have become increasingly sophisticated at detecting and limiting correlated parlays. Many books now restrict certain combinations within same-game parlays, and the odds on permitted correlated legs are often adjusted to account for the relationship. Still, finding edges in correlation remains one of the most viable parlay strategies available.

Same-Game Parlays (SGPs)

Same-game parlays, introduced widely around 2019-2020, allow bettors to combine multiple selections from a single game into one parlay ticket. Before SGPs, most sportsbooks prohibited parlaying outcomes from the same contest because of the inherent correlation between legs. The rise of SGPs was driven by customer demand and the realization by operators that these bets carry exceptionally high margins.

DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and virtually every major US sportsbook now offer same-game parlays as a headline feature. The interfaces make it easy to combine, say, Patrick Mahomes Over 275.5 passing yards with Travis Kelce Over 5.5 receptions and the Chiefs winning outright — all on one ticket.

How SGPs Are Priced

Unlike standard parlays that simply multiply independent odds, SGPs use proprietary correlation models to adjust the payout based on how each leg relates to the others. If you parlay outcomes that the model views as positively correlated, the payout will be lower than a standard parlay multiplication would suggest. If the legs are negatively correlated (one outcome makes the other less likely), the payout may actually be higher.

According to reporting from Action Network’s Darren Rovell and others in the industry, the effective hold (house edge) on same-game parlays ranges from 15% to 40%, depending on the number of legs and the degree of correlation. This is substantially higher than the 4.5% hold on a standard point spread bet. The exact models used by each sportsbook are proprietary, but industry consensus is that SGPs are among the highest-margin products available to operators.

SGP Strategy Tips

Despite the high margins, there are ways to approach same-game parlays more intelligently. First, limit the number of legs — two or three well-researched legs will always be a better bet than a five-leg prayer. Second, look for situations where the book’s correlation model may undervalue the relationship between your selections. Third, take advantage of SGP promotions — FanDuel’s “Same Game Parlay Insurance” and DraftKings’ SGP profit boosts can shift the expected value in your favor on occasion. Fourth, track your SGP results over time. Most bettors who keep records discover that their SGP record is significantly worse than their straight bet record, which provides a useful reality check.

Round Robin Parlays

A round robin is a series of parlays generated from a set of selections. Instead of making one parlay with all your picks, a round robin creates every possible parlay combination of a specified size from your selections. This approach gives you partial protection against a single leg losing while still capturing parlay-level payouts.

How Round Robins Work

Suppose you like three NFL games on Sunday: Chiefs -3, Eagles -7, and Bills +2.5. A standard three-leg parlay requires all three to win. A round robin of two-team parlays from these three selections generates three separate parlay tickets: Chiefs + Eagles, Chiefs + Bills, and Eagles + Bills. Each is a distinct two-team parlay with its own payout.

If two of your three selections win and one loses, you win two of three round robin parlays and lose one. This is dramatically different from a three-leg parlay, where you would lose the entire bet. The trade-off is that your total stake is three times higher (one unit on each of the three parlays), and the total payout when all three win is less than a single three-leg parlay because you are paying for the insurance of partial wins.

Round Robin Combinations

Total Selections	Parlay Size	Number of Parlays
3	2-team	3
4	2-team	6
4	3-team	4
5	2-team	10
5	3-team	10
6	2-team	15
6	3-team	20

Round robins are most commonly used by bettors who have strong conviction on three to five selections and want to capture parlay upside while limiting total-loss risk. They require a larger bankroll allocation than a single parlay but offer a more sustainable approach to parlay betting over time.

Parlay Cards

Parlay cards are pre-printed or digital cards offered by sportsbooks (particularly in Las Vegas and retail locations) with fixed odds and fixed point spreads. Unlike standard parlays where you select from the full menu of available lines, parlay cards limit your options to the games and spreads listed on the card, and the payouts follow a fixed schedule rather than being calculated from the actual odds of each leg.

The house edge on parlay cards is typically higher than on standard parlays. A common parlay card might pay 2.6-to-1 on a two-team parlay (compared to roughly 2.64-to-1 on a true-odds parlay at -110), 6-to-1 on a three-teamer (compared to 6.08-to-1), and so on. The discrepancies grow wider with more legs. Some parlay cards also include “ties lose” provisions, where a push on any leg counts as a loss — a rule that significantly increases the house edge.

There are specific situations where parlay cards can offer value. “Teaser cards” and certain “progressive parlay cards” occasionally present lines that are softer than the standard market, particularly on key numbers in NFL betting. Sharp bettor Rufus Peabody has noted publicly that certain retail parlay cards, particularly those involving 6-point NFL teasers crossing through 3 and 7, have historically offered positive expected value. However, these opportunities are rare and require careful analysis.

When to Bet Parlays: Strategy and EV Analysis

The honest assessment from the professional betting community is that standard uncorrelated parlays are mathematically inferior to straight bets for long-term profitability. Every parlay strategy discussion should begin with this fundamental truth. However, “mathematically inferior” does not mean “never bet parlays.” It means that the context and purpose of the parlay matter enormously.

Scenarios Where Parlays Make Strategic Sense

When you have identified a correlated edge: As discussed above, positively correlated parlays can offer genuine value when the sportsbook underestimates the relationship between legs. This is the most legitimate strategic use of parlays.

When using promotional offers: Many sportsbooks offer parlay boosts, parlay insurance, or bonus bet credits that are best deployed on parlays. A +25% profit boost on a three-leg parlay can shift the expected value from negative to near-zero or even slightly positive. Using bonus bets on parlays is also strategically sound because the expected value of a bonus bet (which does not return the stake) is maximized at higher odds — and parlays naturally produce higher odds.

When your bankroll is small and you want exposure to a larger payout: A recreational bettor with $20 to spend on an NFL Sunday can either make four $5 straight bets or one $5 four-leg parlay. The parlay offers a chance at a $66+ return that no individual $5 bet can match. For entertainment purposes, this approach has legitimate merit as long as the bettor understands the mathematical trade-off.

When hedging a futures position: Parlays can be used as part of a hedging strategy when you hold a large futures ticket and want to lock in profit across multiple possible outcomes. The parlay’s higher payout helps offset the cost of the hedge.

Scenarios Where Parlays Are a Poor Choice

Long-shot multi-leg parlays as a regular strategy: Consistently betting 8-to-12-leg parlays is the fastest way to drain a bankroll. The house edge on these bets is enormous, and the excitement of a potential big payout masks the reality that you are paying a steep tax on every dollar wagered.

Parlaying heavy favorites: Combining three -300 moneylines into a parlay to “get a decent payout” is a common but deeply flawed approach. The implied probabilities are high, so each individual leg is likely to win, but the one time a -300 favorite loses it wipes out multiple parlays worth of winnings. The juice on heavy favorites is typically higher, which means the compounding vig is worse.

Adding legs “just because”: If you have strong conviction on two games but add a third and fourth leg because the parlay payout looks more appealing, you are diluting your edge. Each additional leg you are less confident about drags down the overall expected value of the ticket.

Expected Value (EV) Deep Dive

Expected value is the mathematical concept at the heart of all profitable betting. It represents the average amount you expect to win (or lose) per dollar wagered over a large sample size. A bet with positive expected value (+EV) will be profitable over time; a bet with negative expected value (-EV) will lose money over time.

For a standard -110 bet, you need to win 52.38% of the time to break even. For a two-leg parlay at -110 per leg, you need to win approximately 27.5% of your parlays to break even. The question is whether your selections win often enough to overcome the house edge.

Professional bettor Captain Jack Andrews, founder of Unabated, has written extensively about parlay EV: “If you hit 55% on individual sides — which would make you a very good bettor — your two-team parlays will have positive EV because you are compounding a legitimate edge. But if you hit 51%, which is closer to where most casual bettors land, your parlays will have negative EV even though your individual bets are marginally profitable. Parlays amplify your edge if you have one and amplify your losses if you don’t.”

This insight is critical. Parlays are not inherently bad bets — they are multipliers. They multiply whatever edge (or lack thereof) you bring to the table. For bettors who can consistently identify value in individual selections, small two-to-three-leg parlays can be a viable part of a diversified betting portfolio. For bettors who are picking games at or below the break-even rate, every parlay leg makes their situation worse.

Parlay Betting Tips from Professional Bettors

The following strategies are drawn from publicly shared insights by respected figures in the sports betting community, including professional bettors, analysts, and educators.

Keep it short. The consensus among profitable bettors is to limit parlays to two or three legs. Every additional leg compounds the vig and introduces another point of failure. Two-leg parlays with a genuine edge on both sides are the sweet spot between straight bets and longer-shot multi-leg tickets.

Shop lines relentlessly. If you are going to parlay two NFL sides, make sure you are getting the best available number on both legs. A half-point improvement on each leg has a magnified impact on parlay EV because the improved odds on each leg multiply together. Use an odds comparison tool or check at least three sportsbooks before placing any parlay.

Use parlays for bonus bet conversion. When you receive bonus bets or free bet credits from a sportsbook promotion, deploying them on parlays at +300 to +500 odds is a well-established strategy for maximizing expected return. Since bonus bets do not return the stake amount, the optimal strategy is to use them at higher odds where the potential profit is largest relative to the credit value.

Track everything. Keep a spreadsheet or use a bet tracking app that records every parlay you place, including the odds on each leg, the overall payout, and the result. After a sample of 100+ parlays, you will have data-driven insight into whether your parlay strategy is profitable or whether you should shift more of your bankroll to straight bets.

Avoid “gut feel” legs. The weakest leg in your parlay is the one that determines your overall success rate. If you have two strong data-backed selections, do not add a third game that you are less sure about just to boost the payout. The incremental excitement is not worth the expected value cost.

Understand closing line value. One of the best ways to evaluate whether a parlay leg was a good bet is to compare the odds you took to the closing line (the final odds before the game starts). Consistently getting better odds than the closing line is a strong indicator of long-term profitability, and this metric applies to parlay legs just as it does to straight bets.

Parlay Promotions: What to Look For

Sportsbook promotions can meaningfully shift the expected value of parlays. The key is knowing which promotions offer genuine value and which are marketing vehicles designed to encourage higher-margin bets.

Parlay profit boosts: DraftKings frequently offers percentage boosts on parlay profits (for example, +25% on a 3+ leg parlay). These boosts directly improve the payout and can bring a marginally -EV parlay to breakeven or better. Always calculate whether the boost is large enough to offset the compounding vig before placing the bet.

Same-game parlay insurance: FanDuel’s SGP insurance returns your stake as a bonus bet if one leg of your SGP misses. This effectively gives you a “free” second chance, which substantially improves the expected value of the initial wager. The optimal use of SGP insurance is on shorter parlays (3-4 legs) where missing by one leg is a realistic outcome.

Parlay of the day specials: Some operators offer pre-built parlay cards with boosted odds. These can offer value when the boost is large enough, but always check the underlying odds against the market. A “boosted” parlay at +500 is only a good bet if the unboosted true-odds parlay would have been close to +500 anyway — not if the legs are mispriced to make the boost look more impressive than it is.

Odds boost tokens: Several sportsbooks distribute odds boost tokens that can be applied to any bet, including parlays. Using these tokens on parlays maximizes their impact because the boost applies to the final parlay odds, which are already multiplied. A 50% boost on a +400 parlay takes it to +600 — a meaningful improvement.

Teasers: A Structured Parlay Variant

A teaser is a special type of parlay where you receive additional points on every leg in exchange for a reduced payout. The most common teaser in NFL betting is the six-point teaser, where each spread leg is adjusted by six points in your favor.

For example, if the Chiefs are -7 and the Eagles are -3.5, a six-point teaser moves those lines to Chiefs -1 and Eagles +2.5. Both adjusted legs must win for the teaser to pay. A standard two-team six-point teaser typically pays -110 to -120, depending on the book.

Teasers have been one of the most studied bet types in sports betting analytics. Research by Stanford Wong established that NFL teasers crossing through the key numbers of 3 and 7 have historically been profitable. The logic is that NFL games disproportionately land on margins of 3 and 7 (due to the field goal and touchdown scoring structure), so adjusting a line through these numbers captures a disproportionate amount of probability. A team that is -8 teased to -2 benefits enormously from crossing through 7 and 3, while a team at -4.5 teased to +1.5 crosses through 3 — also a highly valuable adjustment.

The Wong Teaser strategy specifically targets NFL sides between -1 and -2 and +7.5 to +8.5, teasing them through 3 and 7 in opposite directions. This approach has been backtested across decades of NFL data and has shown consistent profitability, making it one of the few parlay-adjacent strategies endorsed by professional bettors.

Using a Parlay Calculator

A parlay calculator is an essential tool for any bettor who regularly places multi-leg wagers. Rather than manually converting odds and multiplying decimal values, a parlay calculator lets you input the American odds for each leg and instantly see the combined odds, potential payout, and implied probability of your parlay hitting.

Our parlay calculator tool supports unlimited legs, handles mixed American and decimal odds, and shows you the true implied probability of your parlay winning. Before placing any parlay, run the numbers through the calculator to make sure you understand exactly what you are risking and what you stand to gain. This simple step helps prevent the common mistake of overestimating parlay payout potential and underestimating the probability of losing.

When using a parlay calculator, pay special attention to the implied probability output. If a four-leg parlay shows a 6% implied probability, that means you should expect to win approximately 6 out of every 100 similar parlays. Ask yourself honestly: does a 6% chance of winning justify the amount you are risking? For most recreational bettors, the answer should influence bet sizing — parlay stakes should represent a small fraction of your total bankroll.

Common Parlay Mistakes to Avoid

Based on industry data and the collective wisdom of professional bettors, these are the most frequent errors that parlay bettors make.

Chasing losses with bigger parlays: After a losing day, the temptation to place a long-shot parlay to “get back to even” is powerful and destructive. This is a well-documented behavioral pattern that sportsbooks count on. If your straight bets are losing, adding more legs and more vig will only accelerate the losses.

Ignoring the vig: Many bettors compare parlay payouts across sportsbooks without considering the odds on the individual legs. Book A might offer a higher parlay payout multiplier, but if the individual lines are worse, the overall value may be lower. Always compare the total payout including the specific odds on each leg, not just the parlay bonus.

Overvaluing same-game parlays: SGPs are marketed aggressively because they are highly profitable for sportsbooks. The correlation adjustments in SGP pricing almost always favor the house. Unless you have a specific reason to believe the book’s correlation model is wrong, treat SGPs as entertainment bets rather than value bets.

Not using cash-out strategically: Most sportsbooks offer the option to cash out a parlay early if some legs have already won. While the cash-out amount always includes a house cut, there are situations where locking in a guaranteed profit is the mathematically sound play — particularly when the remaining leg has uncertain value or the potential swing in your bankroll is significant.

Failing to consider alternate bet structures: Before placing a four-leg parlay, consider whether a round robin, a series of two-team parlays, or a combination of straight bets and a smaller parlay would give you a better risk-adjusted return. The goal is not to maximize the potential payout on any single ticket but to maximize your long-term expected profit.

Frequently Asked Questions About Parlay Betting

What happens if one leg of my parlay pushes?

If a leg of your parlay results in a push (tie), that leg is removed from the parlay and the payout is recalculated based on the remaining legs. A three-leg parlay where one leg pushes becomes a two-leg parlay. Most US sportsbooks handle pushes this way, though some parlay cards treat pushes as losses — always check the specific rules before betting.

Can I cash out a parlay early?

Yes, most major US sportsbooks including DraftKings, FanDuel, and BetMGM offer early cash-out options on parlays. The cash-out value is calculated in real time based on the current status of each leg. The sportsbook takes a margin on the cash-out offer, so you will receive less than the mathematical fair value of your ticket. Early cash-out can be a useful tool for locking in profit or cutting losses, but it should be used judiciously.

What is the maximum number of legs allowed in a parlay?

Most US sportsbooks allow parlays with up to 15-25 legs, depending on the operator and the types of bets included. DraftKings allows up to 20 legs on a standard parlay and up to 12 on a same-game parlay. FanDuel permits up to 25 legs on a standard parlay. In practice, parlays beyond five or six legs carry such enormous house edges that they should be treated as lottery tickets rather than strategic investments.

Are same-game parlays worse than standard parlays?

Generally yes, from an expected value perspective. Same-game parlays use correlation-adjusted odds that typically carry a higher house edge than standard parlays calculated from independent odds. The exact difference depends on the specific legs and the sportsbook’s correlation model, but industry estimates suggest SGP margins are roughly 2-3 times higher than standard parlay margins on a per-leg basis.

Is it better to bet two separate parlays or one larger parlay?

From a risk management standpoint, two smaller parlays offer better protection against a single losing leg. If you have four selections you like, two separate two-leg parlays give you two chances to profit, while a single four-leg parlay is all-or-nothing. The total potential payout is lower with two separate parlays, but the probability of seeing some return is significantly higher. Most professional bettors who use parlays prefer smaller combinations.

Do professional bettors use parlays?

Some do, but selectively. Professional bettors who use parlays typically limit them to two or three legs, focus on correlated bets, and often use them as a complement to a straight bet strategy. Very few professionals rely on parlays as their primary wagering approach. The compounding vig makes it difficult to sustain a long-term edge on parlays unless the individual selections are consistently profitable on their own.

What is a parlay card, and should I bet one?

A parlay card is a pre-printed or digital betting card, often found in retail sportsbooks, that lists fixed point spreads and fixed payouts. The house edge on parlay cards is typically higher than on standard parlays, though specific card types — particularly six-point NFL teasers crossing through key numbers — have historically offered value. For most bettors, standard parlays with true-odds payouts from a mobile sportsbook are a better option.

How do I calculate the implied probability of my parlay winning?

Convert each leg to an implied probability (for -110, it is 52.38%), then multiply all the probabilities together. For a three-leg parlay at -110 per leg: 0.5238 x 0.5238 x 0.5238 = 0.1437, or approximately 14.4%. This tells you that, assuming the lines are efficient, you should expect your parlay to win about 14.4% of the time. The actual payout you receive should be compared against this probability to determine if the bet offers value.